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Guide

What are mention markets?

A mention market asks whether a named speaker will say a particular word during an event or a stretch of time. On Kalshi, each word on the board is its own Yes-or-No contract: if the speaker says the word, as the market’s rules count it, Yes pays $1; if not, No pays $1.

This guide covers how they run, exactly how each word is counted, and how to research one from what the speaker has said before.

What a mention market is

A mention market is a set of questions about one speaker and one event: will they say this word? Kalshi lists one market per word, so a single press conference can have forty markets, one for each word on its board.

The event can be one appearance (a rally, a speech, a White House briefing, an FOMC press conference, a TV interview or a company’s earnings call) or a stretch of time, such as everything Trump says in a week or a month. When the market names a role (“the Fed chair”, “the press secretary”), it counts whoever holds the role at the time.

Each market trades on its own, and its price moves as people buy and sell. This page shows no prices. Mentyn shows Kalshi’s Yes and No asks on each event page, exactly as received, and never computes anything from them.

How one runs

  1. Listed. Kalshi opens the event ahead of time with its board of words. Each word is its own market.
  2. Open. Each word trades until the event starts, or until the period ends. On a board for a week or a month, a word can close as soon as it’s said.
  3. The event. The speaker speaks. Only the words of the speaker the market names, during the event or period it names, count.
  4. Settled. Kalshi checks the video of the event, and the transcripts if it needs them, against each market’s rules. A word that was said settles Yes; the rest settle No. If the event is cancelled, or moved more than 14 days, the terms say what happens, and many boards carry an “Event does not qualify” market for that. Only Kalshi settles a market.

How words are counted

Terms checked

Every mention market follows Kalshi’s published terms for its kind of market, plus a line of rules on the market itself. Here is what the terms say, rule by rule, with how Mentyn’s counter handles each one. Where we differ, we say so and say which way.

Plurals and possessives

Kalshi
Plural and possessive forms of the word count. Other changes to it don’t: tense, -ing, -ion and the like. If the market word is itself plural, the singular doesn’t count.
Example
  • TariffCounts: tariffs, tariff’s, tariffs’Doesn’t count: tariffed
  • VeteransDoesn’t count: veteran
  • ChinaCounts: China’sDoesn’t count: Chinese
  • EconomicWe count, Kalshi doesn’t: economics
  • CriterionKalshi counts, we don’t: criteria
Mentyn
Our count can be higher or lower We count -s, -es after s, x, z, ch, sh and o, -ies (parties for Party) and a short list of irregular plurals (children for Child). People doesn’t count for Person. A contraction on the word counts too (China’ll), since the word itself was said. Where we differ: our list of irregular plurals is short, so a rarer one (criteria for Criterion) doesn’t count for us: there our count can be lower. And Kalshi says an adjective has no plural, so economics doesn’t count for Economic; our counter counts it, so there our count can be higher.

Compound words

Kalshi
The word counts when it stands on its own or is joined to another by a space or a hyphen. Fused into one word, it doesn’t. When the spelling is in doubt, Kalshi checks Merriam-Webster and the Oxford English Dictionary.
Example
  • FireCounts: fire stationDoesn’t count: wildfire, firefighterWe count, Kalshi doesn’t: fire fighter
  • FirefighterKalshi counts, we don’t: fire fighter
  • PalestineCounts: pro-Palestine
  • New YorkCounts: New York-based
Mentyn
Our count can be higher or lower We go by how the transcript spells it. Inside a market word of two or more parts, a space and a hyphen are alike (Self-Driving counts self driving). We don’t look words up in a dictionary, so if a transcript writes apart or hyphenates a compound that the dictionary writes as one word (fire fighter), we count it and Kalshi doesn’t: there our count can be higher. The other way, if the market word is one word and the transcript splits it (fire fighter for Firefighter), we miss it and Kalshi doesn’t: there our count can be lower.

Same spelling, any meaning

Kalshi
Capital letters and meaning don’t matter: apple the fruit counts for Apple, and will the verb counts for Will. Words that only sound alike don’t count: right isn’t Write.
Example
  • AppleCounts: apple
  • WillCounts: will
  • WriteDoesn’t count: right
Mentyn
The same. An apostrophe inside a word isn’t a break, so ma’am never counts as MA and o’clock never counts as Clock.

Numbers, ordinals and short forms

Kalshi
An ordinal counts for its number (January 6th for January 6), a number counts when said in words (four ten for 410), but not as part of a larger number (five hundred isn’t Five), and an abbreviation counts when it’s said as the full word (Dr. said as “doctor”).
Example
  • January 6Kalshi counts, we don’t: January 6th
  • 410Kalshi counts, we don’t: four ten
  • FiveWe count, Kalshi doesn’t: five hundred
  • DoctorKalshi counts, we don’t: Dr.
Mentyn
Our count can be higher or lower We count what the transcript spells, so these are places where our count can be lower than Kalshi’s: an ordinal, a number written one way for a market word written the other, and an abbreviation don’t count for us. The other way, we count the word wherever it’s spelled, so five hundred counts for Five: there our count can be higher.

Either of two words

Kalshi
A market word with a slash, like AI / Artificial Intelligence, is met by either. Spelling out a short form doesn’t count for it unless both are listed: artificial intelligence doesn’t count for a market that is just AI.
Example
  • AI / Artificial IntelligenceCounts: AI, artificial intelligence
  • AIDoesn’t count: artificial intelligence
Mentyn
Each alternative counts with its plural and possessive, and uses of both add up. One spoken phrase never counts twice: natural gas is one use of Gas / Natural Gas, not two.

Said a number of times

Kalshi
A market word marked (3+ times) needs that many uses before it counts.
Example
  • Tariff3+×Counts: “tariffs, tariff, tariff’s” (three uses)
Mentyn
Our count can be lower Our record asks whether one appearance reached the count: uses in different appearances don’t add up, and a phrase counts only whole and in order. In a record strip, a dot marks an appearance where the word was said, but fewer times than the market needs. On a board for a week or a month, Kalshi’s uses can come from any appearance in the period, so for those boards our record reads lower than a week’s total would.

Who has to say it

Kalshi
Only the speaker the market names. On an earnings call, that is anyone speaking for the company, the call’s operator included, through the Q&A. A reporter’s or an analyst’s question doesn’t count.
Mentyn
We remove hosts, reporters and other guests before we count. On earnings calls we keep the company’s side, operator included, and drop analysts’ questions.

What counts as said

Kalshi
Kalshi settles from video of the event, with transcripts as a fallback. A small slip counts when the meaning is clear, and so does another spelling of a name. Captions, slides and signs don’t count unless spoken, and a word in another language counts only if it is the same word in English. Kalshi’s “What will Trump say” boards for a week or a month also count his own posts on Truth Social and X, and direct quotes first published by the news outlets its terms name.
Example
  • MamdaniKalshi counts, we don’t: Mandani
  • ZelenskyKalshi counts, we don’t: Zelenskiy
Mentyn
Our count can be higher or lower We count published transcripts of spoken appearances only: no posts, and no quotes in articles. A transcript can mishear, misspell or miss a word, and we don’t hold every appearance. A word it misses or misspells counts for Kalshi and not for us; a word it mishears as the market word counts for us and not for Kalshi. So our count can be lower or higher.

Read each market’s rules. Every market on Kalshi has its own rules under the word. They can add conditions, such as whether the Q&A counts, or name fewer alternatives than the label shows. We count the label. Where they differ, the rules on kalshi.com decide.

Which appearances a record counts, and how many, is on the about page →

Kalshi’s terms

Who has mention markets

Kalshi comes back to a few speakers again and again, and lists a board for the earnings calls of many companies. These are the ones we track. Each series has its own page with the open board and our count of past ones.

People

Trump’s boards side by side are on Trump mention markets; every series is on the series index.

Earnings calls

We count earnings calls for many companies, each with its own page. Every company, A–Z →

Kalshi also opens one-off boards for other people: senators, governors, executives at a conference. They’re on the events page as they open, and everyone we hold transcripts for is on the speakers page.

How to research one

Here is how to read a board on Mentyn, step by step.

  1. Start from the board. Open the event from the events page. Each word on Kalshi’s board is a row, with our count on the left and Kalshi’s Yes and No asks on the right, and each word links to its market on kalshi.com.
  2. Read the record. “Said 4/5” means the word was said, as the market counts it, in 4 of the 5 appearances counted. The record strip shows which ones, oldest to newest; Uses/app and Last said add how often and how lately. On Free, event pages count the latest 5 appearances; Pro counts the latest 15 appearances (see pricing).
  3. Check what’s counted. A press conference counts press conferences, a rally counts rallies and an earnings call counts earnings calls, when we hold at least 4 of that kind; otherwise every kind, and the page says so. Boards for a week or a month count every kind. The depth marker shows how many appearances are behind a number, and a record of 3 or fewer is marked thin.
  4. Read the market’s rules. A record is only as good as its match to the rules. Check the threshold, the slash alternatives and whether the Q&A counts on kalshi.com, and see how words are counted for what our counter does.
  5. Look back afterwards. Once the event’s transcript is in our library, its page shows our count of every word: Our count of the transcript. Kalshi settles. Closed events are on the past events page.

What Mentyn doesn’t do

  • No news or post counts. We count transcripts of what the speaker said, not how often a topic is in the news or on social media.
  • No picks or probabilities. Counts describe the past. They don’t say what anyone will say, and we don’t turn them into odds.
  • No prices here. Kalshi’s Yes and No asks are on each event page, shown as received. Nothing on Mentyn is computed from them.
  • Not Kalshi. Mentyn is independent and doesn’t take orders. Only Kalshi settles a market.

On Kalshi’s boards now

Open events right now, with the words each speaker has said in the most recent appearances. The counts are ours, from transcripts.

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Questions

Is Mentyn part of Kalshi?
No. Mentyn is an independent site. We show Kalshi’s market data under licence, credited to Kalshi Research, and we don’t take orders.
Where do the counts come from?
Public transcripts of each speaker’s appearances, and a licensed provider for earnings calls. We keep only the speaker’s own words. Where the data comes from →
Why can Mentyn’s count differ from Kalshi’s?
Kalshi settles from video and each market’s own rules; we count transcripts by the market’s label. Transcripts miss things, and a few forms, like ordinals and slips of the tongue, count for Kalshi but not for our counter. A count looks wrong? Use Report on its row on the event page.
Do earnings calls count the Q&A?
Kalshi’s earnings markets include the Q&A and count anyone speaking for the company, the operator included. We count the same side of the call and leave out analysts’ questions.
How often are the counts updated?
We look for new transcripts every few hours. Each event page says when the speaker’s library was last updated.
Is it free?
Every event, word and ask is free to see. Pro, our paid plan, adds each speaker’s fuller record. See pricing →

Event titles and market words from Kalshi · Powered by Kalshi Research (opens in a new tab) · This page shows no prices. Only Kalshi settles a market.